FBI in Afghanistan - The Series

Ever wondered what the FBI does downrange? I recently stumbled across this interesting series from the FBI's PR team. It won't be news to many of you but I thought I'd bring together the series in one place. Biometrics and CSI techniques are very important in a war zone where you are looking to pinpoint individuals.

Part 1 Our Role in the War Zone
Part 2 The Major Crimes Task Force
Part 3 Contract Corruption: Holding Americans Accountable in a War Zone
Part 4 Biometrics: A Measure of Progress
Part 5 Humanitarian Effort in the War Zone
Part 6 Turning Information Into Intelligence

ISI and Attacks in Pakistan - Confidence in Nuke C2?

The WashPost reports on Pakistani security and how it has been compromised.

The ISI is believed to have an entire branch — known as the “S Wing” — devoted to relationships with militant organizations. Some analysts believe the wing operates with relative independence, whether by design or default, that gives top brass plausible deniability when cooperation between the spy service and insurgents comes to light.

The story follows in the wake of the attack on the Karachi naval base where between 4 and 6 terrorists tied down security forces for 16 hours in a shootout that claimed 10 people and 2 US made P-3C Orion maritime surveillance aircraft. The Karachi attack is the most significant against a military target since the 2009 attacks on GHQ and a mosque used by military leaders in Rawalpindi.

Iran Helps Syria Crush Protestors

Iran in Syria (WashPost)

U.S. officials say Iran is dispatching increasing numbers of trainers and advisers — including members of its elite Quds Force — into Syria to help crush anti-government demonstrations that are threatening to topple Iran’s most important ally in the region.

This story is worth following. Imagine if NATO had done in Syria what it is doing in Libya? The road to Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, all pass through Syria. If the outcome could be controlled - and we all know how that goes - encouraging reform in Syria would be a much richer strategic prize than even a perfect outcome in Libya. The good news in both cases is the insurgents are well motivated and dedicated - and on the right side of history. We have shifted from the days when everything that went wrong was blamed on America (irrespective of cause) to a new appreciation for allied efforts to assist even in cases that are not as strategically vital (Libya) as others (Syria).

Hundreds of Terror Training Camps Allowed by Pakistani Military

The Long War Journal has picked up a piece from the Times of India that claims Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed leaders have admitted that "the Pakistani military allows [them] to operate freely and run hundreds of training camps."

Syed Salahuddin, the leader of the Hizbul Mujahideen, admitted that the Pakistani military permits his fighters to move freely and run training camps in the region."Our mujahideen can come and go at their own will," Salahuddin told a local news agency, according to The Times of India. "There is no question that the army can stop us."

The story is interesting but not surprising.  Certainly consideration has to be given to the motivations of the source as well as the publication. Both have motivations to make and print these claims, respectively. Syed Salahuddin, like other terrorists before him, gain when they encourage friction between Pakistan and India thereby taking attention and focus away from terror plans to take down the Pakistani state. The Times of India, perhaps understandably, has been at pains to repeatedly say "I told you so" about arch-rival Pakistan's complicity in all things South Asian terror, following OBL's discovery a short walk from Pakistan's West Point. 

Energy and Food Security Intertwined

In its May/June edition Foreign Policy Magazine has a cover story on the politics, economics and security of food. This is will worth reading.

Unfortunately, today's price hikes are driven by trends that are both elevating demand and making it more difficult to increase production: among them, a rapidly expanding population, crop-withering temperature increases, and irrigation wells running dry. Each night, there are 219,000 additional people to feed at the global dinner table. When the Indian monsoon failed in 1965, for example, President Lyndon Johnson's administration shipped one-fifth of the U.S. wheat crop to India, successfully staving off famine. We can't do that anymore; the safety cushion is gone.

At the same time, the United States... is now converting massive quantities of grain into fuel for cars, even as world grain consumption, which is already up to roughly 2.2 billion metric tons per year, is growing at an accelerating rate. A decade ago, the growth in consumption was 20 million tons per year. More recently it has risen by 40 million tons every year. But the rate at which the United States is converting grain into ethanol has grown even faster. In 2010,

US, Britain to Form Joint Security Board

The United States and Britain are planning to form a joint national security council, designed to allow the two allies close cooperation in dealing with security challenges. The two are expected to officially announce the creation of the new National Security Strategy Board during U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to London this week. Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, Tom Donilon, and his British counterpart,

Warfare Against the Individual

Some thoughts on a Friday afternoon.

Warfare has evolved into a deadly contest between states and individuals. From mass on mass, to small teams on individuals, some potentially armed with weapons of mass destruction.

DSB Report on ISR in COIN

Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Defense Intelligence Counterinsurgency (COIN) Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Operations

Cover Memorandum Excerpt:
Based on its investigation the Task Force arrived at the following observations:
- DoD lacks a common understanding of COIN
- DoD has assumed responsibility for COIN ISR by default
- DoD ISR is narrowly interpreted to mean technical intelligence collection by airborne platforms
- ISR capabilities have not been applied effectively against COIN operations that deal with populations in part because a comprehensive set of intelligence requirements for COIN does not exist
- The U.S. Government is not investing adequately in the development of social
and behavioral science information that is critically important to COIN
- ISR support for COIN is currently being overshadowed by counterterrorism and force protection requirements
- Increasing the focus of ISR for COIN on incipient insurgencies would provide more whole of government options and reduce the need for major commitment of military forces
- New S&T solutions must address the crisis in processing, exploitation, and dissemination (PED) and associated communications caused by the deluge of sensor data
- New and emerging technologies and techniques can be employed to improve our understanding of COIN environments
The report provides the rationale for the Task Force’s findings and recommendations, responds to five specific tasks, and notes substantial policy guidance on aspects of COIN and ISR as well as numerous and inconsistent definitions of key terms associated with the study.

First sighted on SWJ.

My Favorite Churchill Speech

Churchill We Must Arm   This speech is as relevant today as it was on Oct 16, 1938. This is an iTunes file. I particularly like the way in which he invokes the power of ideas for achieving victory. For a follower of Bletchley Park and the great men and women who worked there, one cannot but appreciate the double meaning.

Homage to The Cardinal

I was to be Sir Harry's second last PhD student.The following was written after I learned of his death in 1998, the year after my graduation.

There is no such thing as a crazy or mad enemy - Saddam's Strategy

If you want to understand just how profoundly badly we mis-judged Saddam and his intentions read these two excellent reports:

1. Saddam's War: An Iraqi Military Perspective of the Iran-Iraq War
2. Iraqi Perspectives Project

Why does this matter now?

Name your enemy. There is no such thing as a crazy or mad enemy. Everyone acts rationally. What is rational for a particular leader and people will depend on their culture.

Strategic Intelligence, CT and the Bin laden Raid - The end of COIN?

The following is  a text I have been working on of late. I was asked to modify the strategic intelligence piece to account for the implications of the bin laden raid. I have done that and gone further - to widen the discussion into the right future strategic policy. I argue that CT has proven itself to be more useful than COIN and that it will become the focus of effort for practical (budget) and operational reasons. The fact is we are fighting a network of individuals - not whole societies. We do need a networked way to fight the enemy network. I think we have it in CT. The piece ends with how CT can work in with the trends of the Arab spring.